Obesity Market Poised to Deliver on Outsized Potential
Insight by Michael Nedelcovych, Ph.D., Steve Scala, Joshua Jennings, Charles Rhyee, Phil Nadeau, Yaron Werber, Steven Mah, Ritu Baral, Chris LoBianco, Chad Wiatrowski and Matthew D. Ramsay
THE COWEN INSIGHT
Obesity drug sales could reach $30B by 2030, as recent therapeutics show success in significant patient weight loss. However, there is much uncertainty. 20 near and mid-term catalysts will chart the path. This opportunity is revitalizing research into obesity and associated conditions, encompassing therapeutics, devices, digital health, and diagnostics.
ASSESSING THE MARKET FOR OBESITY DRUGS
The obesity marketplace is overcoming historical hurdles. investors have the opportunity to participate in its outsized potential. Though the size of the addressable market is well understood, obesity drugs polarize sentiment. Some expect payor barriers to stall growth, while others forecast record-breaking sales. A middle ground, representing billions in sales at a relatively low risk of fizzling, is most likely. Some degree of success may be priced into leading names, but sales potential is one thing and execution another entirely.
A COMPREHENSIVE VIEW OF THE OBESITY THERAPEUTICS LANDSCAPE
Our view is supported by an exhaustive overview of the obesity drug development landscape, KOL expectations for key trials, and proprietary physician and payor polls, all of which point to sustained growth in a large market. An evidence-based ecosystem is also emerging that includes not just obesity therapeutics but devices, digital therapeutics, and consumer-facing diagnostics.
WHAT TO WATCH
This drug class has a good outlook for the first half of 2023 due to sustained demand, good adherence, improving reimbursement, and favorable trial results.