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Trade, Tariffs & Anti-Globalization

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What is the lasting significance of the trade policy shifts initiated under the Trump Administration?

While trade disruption has been the focus of markets and exerted substantial drag on US investment and growth, the longer-term stakes may be higher over the high-tech arms race between China and the US. We expect investment restrictions, capital controls, industrial policy, supply chain de-linkage, and export controls to emerge as new weapons of choice. We also anticipate tension between the US and Europe to increase as regionalization replaces globalization, with technology, agriculture, currency and autos all creating new fronts. Recent developments expanding CFIUS involvement in markets, FCC bans on Chinese equipment purchases and Entity List designations all underscore an evolving paradigm shift that is blurring traditional trade policy lines.

What we’re watching:

  • Supply chains
  • Export controls
  • Currency wars/capital controls
  • Industrial policy
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