THE COWEN INSIGHT
Perceptions of U.S. health risk and health care system preparedness were viewed as “moderate” across three groups in the COVID-19 survey, with risk mainly to susceptible populations and the U.S. either prepared or to be significantly stretched. Physicians are most pessimistic about the timing of vaccines or therapeutic with companies most optimistic. Investors and companies share a view of the GDP slowdown but no recession.
COVID-19 Survey Overview
Cowen surveyed the 2,200+ participants at its 40th Annual Health Care Conference to gain views on the perception of COVID-19 (Coronavirus) human health risk, preparedness of the U.S. health care system, outlook for a vaccine or therapeutic, and risk to the U.S. economy. The results are summarized below and detailed on the following pages.
We surveyed investors (151 responded) on both the first and second days of our conference to determine whether opinions changed after discussions with managements and physicians. Responses were similar on the two days:
- Health Risk – About 50% of investors view risk as moderate (mainly to susceptible populations), with another 20-30% viewing it as modest (a bit worse than seasonal flu).
- Preparedness – 26-37% of investors view regions as “prepared with only some being stretched” while 29-35% view “most regions likely to be stretched.”
- Availability of Vaccine or Therapeutic – 35% of investors think a vaccine will be available in 12-18 months, 23-30% believe it could take longer – 18-24 months, while 17-21% think it could take 2+ years.
- Economic Risk – 40-48% of investors see GDP slowdown but no recession, 28-30% see major disruption/recession, 14-20% view risk as modest.
Thirty-two companies responded to our COVID-19 survey:
- Health Risk – 56% of companies view risk as moderate, with 34% viewing it as modest.
- Preparedness – 66% of companies view most regions as prepared with only some being stretched, while 22% view most regions as likely to be stretched.
- Availability of Vaccine or Therapeutic – 52% of companies think a vaccine will be available in 12-18 months, 23% believe it could take longer – 18-24 months, while 19% think it could be done in 6-12 months.
- Economic Risk – 66% of companies see GDP slowdown but no recession, 19% see major disruption/recession, 13% assess risk as modest.
Thirty-three physicians responded to our COVID-19 survey:
- Health Risk – 70% of physicians view risk as moderate, 12% see little risk, 9% have a modest concern.
- Preparedness – 39% of KOLs view most regions as prepared with only some stretched, 27% view most regions as likely to be stretched. 18% think the hurdle is modest.
- Availability of Vaccine or Therapeutic – 33% of KOLs think a vaccine will be available in 12-18 months, 21% believe 18-24 months, while 24% view it as 24+ months away.
For the full survey results, view the COVID-19 Survey Results.
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