US eCommerce Disruption 4.0: Pandemic Impact Has Staying Power

In our 4th annual eCommerce study, we find the sector reflecting outsized growth. Our updated US eCommerce vertical model suggests eCommerce sales will reach $1TN in ’22, roughly 2 years ahead of our prior estimate. This is likely because COVID-19’s impact on consumer behavior has some permanence.
We estimate US eCommerce sales of $867BN in ’20, +48% y/y. This increase is primarily driven by massive growth in the Consumables, Food & Beverage and Home verticals. We forecast >10K big brand store closures in ’20, largely due to COVID-19.
Online Grocery is at an inflection point, with users nearly doubling during the pandemic, including 32% of survey respondents using Online Grocery vs 18% a year ago
We forecast US eCommerce growth of +11% y/y in ’21, despite the difficult +48% y/y comp in ’20. This could prove to be conservative as:
These under-penetrated, high purchase frequency verticals will drive eCommerce growth in ’21-’25. They account for 36-37% of incremental eCommerce sales per our estimates, well above pre-COVID contributions. Home & Auto will also drive growth in the coming years.
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