According to a paper published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), partisan conflict is associated with lower investment rates at the firm level—in other words, more uncertainty leads to lower capital expenditures. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has tracked the degree of disagreement among U.S. politicians at the federal level for more than 40 years. Its data demonstrate that political conflict has increased post the Great Financial Crisis and has been more volatile over the past 10 years than it had been over the previous 30. TD Cowen Washington Research Group has identified the key issues that investors will be most focused on in the runup to the U.S. presidential election in November 2024.
What we’re watching
- Tax policy and the U.S. fiscal cliff
- The U.S. relationship with China
- The possibility of NATO decommitment and defunding to Ukraine
- Tariffs, especially the prospect of a 10% blanket tariff
- Implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act
- Drug pricing
A defining feature of U.S. tax policy is the partisan division that surrounds it.