Geopolitical tensions remain the financial markets’ most significant focus and risk. China, Russia, India, and the Middle East are currently the key flashpoints. Ongoing conflicts, changes in population size and purchasing power, and shifts in regional alliances are impacting global trade and spheres of influence.
Political observers are also closely monitoring Iran’s relationship with China and Russia to determine if there are even more significant geopolitical ramifications beyond the Middle East. For example, in August 2023, Iran was among several countries invited to join the BRICS group of developing nations (which includes China and Russia) in the group’s first expansion in over a decade.
What we’re watching
- China – population contraction, fiscal challenges, Taiwan
- Russia – sanctions, Ukraine impact on defense sector
- India – demographics, strategic posture and allyship
- Middle East – diplomacy with Israel, regional alignment with or opposition to Iran