Two decades after the 9/11 attacks and resulting war on terror, new conflicts are forcing the West to shift its diplomatic, economic, technology, and military strategies. This coincides with a technology-driven arms race that will dramatically shift the way we fight wars in the future, driving an upswing in U.S. and European defense spending. Cowen expects at least a 10% increase in the U.S. defense budget in FY 2023, equating to around $50 billion. There are also new modes of threat, including risks to cyber and biosecurity that are determining the planes on which future wars will be fought.
What we’re watching
The U.S.-PRC [People’s Republic of China] relationship remains overtly competitive and icy, with few, if any, areas for potential agreement. The war in Ukraine has shocked EU into action/unity, surprising China.”