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U.S. / China Competition & Decoupling

The U.S.-China relationship continues to deteriorate, setting the stage for further economic detachment. Trade in goods, services, capital, labor, technology, and data could be severely restricted with an economic partner that will soon be the world’s largest economy. A rebalancing of the U.S.-China economic relationship could be the most significant investment theme for the next decade and touch almost every part of the global economy. Supply chains, investment restrictions, and export controls will be the primary fronts in 2021 and beyond.

What we’re watching

  • Trump administration final actions
  • China-targeted provisions in current legislation
  • Biden admin nominations impacting China policy
  • Regional geopolitical and trade risk
  • Biden admin approach to Pacific alliances/agreements (trade and defense)

Related Themes

Themes 2021

Cowen Research Themes 2021

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The delinkage or rebalancing of this economic relationship could be the most significant investment theme for the next decade and touch almost every part of the global economy.

Roman Schweizer, The U.S. & China In The Ring Of Fire