Election 2020
How much will Medicare policy be impacted by the outcome of the 2020 election?
We expect the 2020 US general election to be decided by a few counties, in keeping with recent precedent. We believe a win for President Trump could stem from one of two scenarios: (1) low-turnout race with multiple candidates to fracture anti-Trump sentiment, and/or (2) successful branding of a “choice” election between “America First vs. Socialism.”
If the election is a straight referendum on the President, as were the 2018 midterms, we would expect him to lose. However, a Senate majority will be critical to the advancement of any President’s agenda in 2021, and we will be laser-focused on the Senate races in the Electoral College swing states, which will be highly competitive and likely voted in concert with the Presidential ticket.
What we’re watching:
- Senate races in Electoral College swing states
- Fortress America/China
- Tech lash
- Income inequality
170+
Lifetime federal judges nominated & confirmed by President Trump and GOP Senate majority
53+
Minimum number of Senators needed for passage of controversial legislation
25%
Percentage of sitting circuit court appellate judges nominated and confirmed by President Trump and Senate GOP majority
~$40T
Estimated cost of proposed Warren M4A program
