Election 2020

Washington Policy Sector

How much will Medicare policy be impacted by the outcome of the 2020 election?

We expect the 2020 US general election to be decided by a few counties, in keeping with recent precedent. We believe a win for President Trump could stem from one of two scenarios: (1) low-turnout race with multiple candidates to fracture anti-Trump sentiment, and/or (2) successful branding of a “choice” election between “America First vs. Socialism.”

If the election is a straight referendum on the President, as were the 2018 midterms, we would expect him to lose. However, a Senate majority will be critical to the advancement of any President’s agenda in 2021, and we will be laser-focused on the Senate races in the Electoral College swing states, which will be highly competitive and likely voted in concert with the Presidential ticket.

What we’re watching:

  • Senate races in Electoral College swing states
  • Fortress America/China
  • Tech lash
  • Income inequality
Themes 2020

15 Themes to Focus on 2020: A Handbook for Portfolio Managers

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170+

Lifetime federal judges nominated & confirmed by President Trump and GOP Senate majority

53+

Minimum number of Senators needed for passage of controversial legislation

25%

Percentage of sitting circuit court appellate judges nominated and confirmed by President Trump and Senate GOP majority

~$40T

Estimated cost of proposed Warren M4A program

Research

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Beauty School With COTY, A Diversified Beauty Powerhouse

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American flags hung high from flag poles blowing in the clear blue sky.

National Security Need-To-Know Podcast Series

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American Flag perched on the top of the United States capital building during the day.

Three Areas To Watch: Fiscal Packages/Shutdown Risk, Special Election 2024 Impact & Q1 Catalyst Calendar

Events

New York, NY

Jun 04, 2024

8th Annual Future of the Consumer Conference

New York, NY

May 29, 2024

52nd Annual Technology, Media & Telecom Conference

Virtual

Mar 19, 2024

3rd Annual Fiber-to-the-Home Symposium