How much will Medicare policy be impacted by the outcome of the 2020 election?
We expect the 2020 US general election to be decided by a few counties, in keeping with recent precedent. We believe a win for President Trump could stem from one of two scenarios: (1) low-turnout race with multiple candidates to fracture anti-Trump sentiment, and/or (2) successful branding of a “choice” election between “America First vs. Socialism.”
If the election is a straight referendum on the President, as were the 2018 midterms, we would expect him to lose. However, a Senate majority will be critical to the advancement of any President’s agenda in 2021, and we will be laser-focused on the Senate races in the Electoral College swing states, which will be highly competitive and likely voted in concert with the Presidential ticket.
What we’re watching:
- Senate races in Electoral College swing states
- Fortress America/China
- Tech lash
- Income inequality
Lifetime federal judges nominated & confirmed by President Trump and GOP Senate majority
Minimum number of Senators needed for passage of controversial legislation
Percentage of sitting circuit court appellate judges nominated and confirmed by President Trump and Senate GOP majority
Estimated cost of proposed Warren M4A program