THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
The automotive market is in the midst of two simultaneous, but connected, transformations: electrification and autonomy. Both require vehicle redesigns underpinned by innovation in analog/, digital, semiconductors, and software. These technological advances will determine value creation over the next decade. In this report, we focus on semiconductor companies focused on autos and seek to help investors identify opportunities and risks.
THE GROWING ROLE OF TECH COMPANIES IN EV
The success or failure of electrifying and automating the mobility industry will depend on its ability to efficiently and economically produce vehicles that can utilize two critical resources: electricity and data. This will be addressed with semiconductor and software technology innovation. We anticipate technology companies will play a growing role in vehicle design and see them capturing more of the incremental mobility industry value being created.
AUTOMOTIVE SEMICONDUCTOR MARKET & FORECAST
This report takes a comprehensive look at the drivers, inhibitors, and technology needed to bring EVs and Advanced Driver Assistant Systems (ADAS) to market. We built a proprietary model based on our team’s EV forecast for ADAS attach rate.
Flowing off these attach rates, we offer bottom-up forecasts for the automotive semiconductor market. Our forecasts include silicon carbide , gallium nitride, IGBTs, ADAS processors, broad-based MCUs/SoCs, image sensors, radar, and LiDAR. As part of this report, we also unpack and quantify trailing edge semiconductor shortages that have plagued the automotive industry.
Our proprietary model forecasts the total automotive semis market growing at a 9% CAGR from 2023-2030, off strong 2021 and 2022 growth, roughly doubling to $121B. We forecast power semiconductors, processing, and sensors growing at 16%, 14%, and 20% CAGRs. Silicon carbide, silicon IGBTs, and dedicated ADAS processors are forecasted as the most attractive underlying verticals.
WHAT TO WATCH
Key drivers to watch in automotive semiconductors include:
- OEM partnerships with technology companies across ADAS and EVs
- Vertical integration efforts by power semiconductor players in silicon carbide
- Regulatory driven EV and autonomy adoption
- Semiconductor capacity and CapEx investment plans
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