THE COWEN INSIGHT
We polled 25 high-volume electrophysiologists on the U.S. left atrial appendage closure (LAAC) market. Based on this poll, we have revised our LAAC model.
We now forecast 26% annual market growth in 2023-24. These estimates are not vastly different than what we projected in our 2021 US LAAC model. However, the latest feedback we received increases our conviction that LAAC will be a key driver for leading LAAC companies.
LACC DEVICES PRESENT A $1B OPPORTUNITY FOR THE MEDICAL TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY
The US market for endovascular LAAC devices is currently a $1B opportunity. is among the fastest-growing segments of the medical technology industry. We have tracked the market closely for the past seven years and expect it to remain a high-growth duopoly for the foreseeable future, rewarding both leading companies despite being direct competitors in this field.
PROPRIETARY LAAC SURVEY
With the help of the research firm Guidepoint, we surveyed 25 US-based electrophysiologists who are frequent implanters of LAAC technology. Our respondents have 13 years of experience on average and perform more than 10 LAAC cases per month.
We have made modest revisions to our US LAAC market model based on this survey. We currently assume US LAAC market revenue of $1,250M in 2023 and $1,575M in 2024, for 26% growth in both periods, vs. $950M and $1,150M previously.
DRIVERS FOR GROWTH
LAAC device adoption should increase as patient awareness builds and outcomes are shown to be similar to those achieved by drug therapy. We think the next major catalyst for the U.S. LAAC market will come with the results of the ongoing clinical studies that evaluate the safety and efficacy of newer LAACs vs. direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs). Data from these trials should be available starting in 2025.
KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR SURVEY
The feedback we received in our survey strengthens our conviction that LAAC can be a reliable growth driver for both leading medical technology companies. We regard our market model as fairly conservative since its assumptions align with the current consensus views on those companies. We think the upside potential is greater in U.S. LAAC than in most high-growth med tech segments.
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