Big List 2024 For Financials, Crypto & Housing Policy 

The TD Cowen Insight  

Our Big List 2024 report focuses on policy risk for banks, consumer finance/payments, student lending, markets, housing, insurance, crypto, and cannabis in an election year. It covers all the major Washington challenges for the broader financial sector in one report. It also features our top five list of risks not getting enough attention, and a list of risks the market is asking about. See last year’s installment. 

Elevated Policy Risk in 2024 

We believe policy risk is elevated across financials, housing, and crypto as Biden’s regulators seek to complete their agenda in case the President does not win a second term. Election 2024 does not necessarily improve conditions for financials even if the GOP wins the White House; many Biden regulators have terms that extend into 2026 and Trump is more of a populist than a pro-business Republican.  

Our Big List – Financial and Industry Implications  

Banks 

Risk remains elevated with proposals to raise capital and liquidity while cutting fee income. 

Consumer Finance/Payments 

There’s a broad effort to cut banking fees, though more of a focus on regulating nonbank consumer finance providers. 

Student Lending 

Compliance risk is elevated as Team Biden pushes new income-based repayment plan and crafts targeted debt relief. 

Markets 

There is risk to markets from T+1 settlement, though we do not see broader retail trading reforms advancing. 

Housing 

We do not see a housing crisis given persistent supply shortages. 

Insurance 

State price controls and natural disasters are the threat, but Washington is unlikely to produce a solution. 

Crypto 

Washington’s go-slow approach may end up being advantageous to crypto even though there is short-term pain and frustration. 

Cannabis 

Progress keeps occurring, though expectations for more radical moves are unrealistic.  

Macro 

The election is an ultimately trade-off between micro risk with Biden and macro risk with Trump.