Ad Buyer Survey XII: ’24 Ad Outlook
Insight by John Blackledge, Doug Creutz, Krish Sankar, William Kerr , Logan Whalley, CFA and James Kopelman
The TD Cowen Insight
We surveyed 54 US ad buyers totaling ~$25BN in U.S. ad spend in December 2023. We raised our worldwide digital ad estimates ~5% annually from 2024-2028 given higher digital ad growth in 2023 coupled with improved ad buyer macro sentiment vs last year. Some leading platforms are expected to make major gains, while others are stabilizing.
2024 Advertising Outlook Report Highlights
Our 2024 Advertising Outlook report assesses emerging advertising trends in 2024 and beyond based on our proprietary annual survey of senior US ad buyers. Broader macro sentiment among ad buyers was better vs last year. Only 24% expect a recession vs 66% last year. However, ad spend growth expectations remained somewhat muted as ad buyers expect 3.4% y/ y growth across all ad mediums (on average), slightly above the 3.3% growth in last year’s survey. Given better than expected digital ad spend in 2023 coupled with slightly better ad buyer sentiment, we raised our global digital advertising forecast ~5% annually on avg from 2023-2028.
Other highlights from the report:
- Digital video is a key driver, while short form is expected to grow 19% from 2023 to 2028 per our estimates, led by leading social media companies
- A leading online retailer is now second in ROI and making strides in video (70% of ad buyers expect to advertise on their platform when it launches)
- A leading video on-demand streaming service is seeing strong advertiser adoption (~50% of those surveyed)
- 37% of ad buyers are already using GenAI for content creation
The Focus of Our Survey
The report is based on our proprietary annual survey of 54 senior US advertising buyers representing over $24BN in US advertising spending across all advertising channels (Digital, TV, etc.) and excluding digital only ad buyers. The survey focused on upcoming digital ad trends, ad spend expectations for 2024/2025, expected digital ad share gainers and losers across platforms and channels, and new questions on Generative AI usage. The survey also shows the impact across the greater advertising market.
Ongoing Migration from Traditional to Digital Channels
The migration to digital advertising from traditional channels like TV continues. The ad buyers expect the digital share of total US advertising to rise 6% over the next two years. Social video and digital video advertising are expected to be the fastest growing channels within digital advertising in the next 2 years.